weekend notes

Anecdote: The breadth and depth of distractions are extraordinary these days. Skinning up the mountain, the air thin, cold, a bitter gust. People appear to be losing their minds, frightened of anything, everything, like in the depths of a major crisis, and even so, markets remain rather firm, placid. International equities are outpacing the US so far this year. And Germany’s Dax index is 16.4% hig

Hope all goes well… “The plebes on my team asked for advice on defending against jabs,” said Liv, her freshmen nervous about combatives training, a mandatory hand-to-hand combat program at West Point. “So, I told them what my teacher taught me.” Her senior year in high school, Liv marched her 5 feet 4 inches to a gritty MMA gym in Stamford and took to it. “He had me stand still and let each guy in

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2018 (see below) about the changes happening in America and with Americans. Back then it became clear that a process of great significance was underway. It continued beneath the surface during the Biden years and has now manifested more clearly and forcefully than ever before. Enjoy Presidents Day. Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the ve

Anecdote: I love survival stories. Nothing good ever happens to dead people, so it seems worthwhile to study the art of enduring. That’s naturally a metaphor for trading, investing, business building too. So, I think about it a lot, and remind my team of its importance, particularly in periods of volatility, shifting sands, great change. Laurence Gonzales wrote a book called ‘Deep Survival, Who Li

Hope all goes well… “Diversity is our strength,” said Pete Hegseth in a recent town hall at the Pentagon. “That is the single dumbest phrase in military history,” continued the US Secretary of Defense, presiding over 2.8mm active-duty, reserve, National Guard, and civilian personnel. The US pendulum is swinging hard. It is far too early to know where it will take the country, and with it, the worl

Anecdote: Headed straight up. Skis on, skinning, the snow hard, air cold, a blue sky. Ascending at altitude is always difficult with sea level lungs, but there’s no better way to acclimatize. Heart pounding, lungs burning, thoughts swirling, movement allows us to think clearly, see vividly. At 1000 feet up I turned to look out, Tetons in the distance, the valley floor vast, for the most part untou

Hope all goes well… “Hardest thing I’ve ever done,” said Teddy, recovering from the Norwegian Ruck March. The tradition started within Norway’s military in 1915. Cadets march/run an 18.6-mile course with 1,400 feet of elevation, carrying a 25lb pack, body armor, water. Timed. All for bragging rights and a little pin. They did it late Friday night in the rain. “Wouldn’t be able to graduate without

Anecdote: “The Strategic Asset Allocation approach to institutional investing has dominated for decades,” said Lone Star, passing another couple Ivy’s in the annual performance league tables. “In the coming 5-10 years it’s going to be replaced almost entirely by the Total Portfolio approach,” he said, talking my book, and anchoring the launch of our new Total Portfolio fund. “Optimizing across you

Hope all goes well… “Builders make the most money,” I said at the luncheon, high in some tower, looking out over Dallas. “That’s why I’m sitting here today,” said the entrepreneur to my left, confident, smiling. “If you’re not building a company, the next best thing is to own equity,” I said to the oil, gas, tech execs, family offices. We discussed the new administration, geopolitics, markets, ris