weekend notes

Anecdote: “Where’s the marginal demand going to come from to increase corporate profits?” asked Sparks. “The government is spending at full bore, the consumer has been spending at full bore,” he said. “What we do have is the AI capex cycle – that’s the Nivida story – but we’re not going to get more aggressive investment in this sector. You can’t build data centers and power capacity at

Hope all goes well… “Some countries are weaponizing trade and forcing companies to take sides and make choices that go against economic principles,” said Xi Jinping, standing in the Great Hall of the People, a group of 40 of leading global CEOs in attendance. The US had announced additional secondary tariffs of 25% on any country that buys Venezuelan oil. US tariffs on China were lifted to 20% thi

Anecdote: We were discussing thought experiments. Charlie, my youngest. He’s studying Hobbes and Locke, English political philosophers. Hobbes saw humans as selfish, brutish, competitive, driven by fear, desire. Locke was more optimistic. Hard to know who is right, but running thought experiments helps. I like to explore such things in the extreme, searching for vivid contrast. Like many of our di

Hope all goes well… Left the parking garage and engaged Autopilot. Tesla’s AI knows my habits, optimized the route home. It’s been four years since I first let it take control. Initially, it was unnerving, adolescent, like being driven by an indecisive16-year-old. With each software update Autopilot matures, in quiet communication with the cloud. It’s not perfect, but that day is approaching fast.

Hope all goes well… “No terrorist force will stop American commercial and naval vessels from freely sailing the Waterways of the World,” Trump posted Saturday, pounding Houthis in Yemen, warning Iran’s leaders that they too will be held to account. “It has been over a year since a U.S. flagged commercial ship safely traveled through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, or the Gulf of Aden,” he wrote, remi

Anecdote: “Revised 2025 Bitcoin Act has been published,” texted Marcel Kasumovich, never really sleeping, one eye always open. “Key differences: (1) 200k bitcoin purchases per year, (2) Holding period now permanent, (3) Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) engaged as a coordination function, and (4) Gold reserve revaluation being used to fund bitcoin purchases,” continued Marcel, keeping the team cur

Anecdote: “There were forty of us, huddled in the middle of Cannon Field, it was absolutely dumping rain,” said Jackson, from Quantico, VA. “Our staff platoon commander had us carry out a heavy sea bag, a cooler of beer, we obviously knew this was the day.” The Basic School is a six-month program focused on developing a foundational understanding of infantry tactics, decision-making under pressure

Hope all goes well… “Bear markets happen when policy stimulus fails,” bellowed Biggie Too, Global Chief Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too-big-to-fail affairs. “They happen when the Fed cuts rates and it doesn’t work, because it’s too late,” barked Biggie. “For that to happen now, we need to see some combination of major DOGE cuts, lasting tariffs, and chronic policy uncertainty that leads to

Anecdote: In college, I took a course on global commodities, taught by a professor who made a fortune speculating in soybeans ahead of an El Nino in the 1970s. He told us there would someday be a war over who controlled Ukraine and its uniquely fertile soil. It made sense, like many things do if you remove the need to time them precisely. He taught us a lot of things, one of which was that you cou